We’ll get the devil we know
There are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics, somebody (I don’t recall who) once said. Chatting to a marketing consultant (who we shall refer to as Mr Marketing) the other night, who conducts survey work for the ANC government, a couple of surprising statistics emerged.
Turns out that Jacob Zuma has something like a 76% popularity rating with the voting citizenry of South Africa. Aghast, I asked how that was possible, considering his incessant dithering on so many vital issues since taking office, with the possible exception of suspending Bheki “The Hat” Cele and instituting a commission of inquiry into Armsgate.
To which Mr Marketing replied: “It’s all a matter of perception. You’ve got public perception, you’ve got media perception, and you’ve got reality.
The first and the second influence each other to some extent, and reality is relative.” Relative to what, you might ask? Well, here’s another statistic by way of explanation: South Africans rate primary health care services as the element of service delivery with which they are most satisfied. Any understanding of the parlous state of our creaking public health care system, will persuade you that the survey was either “fixed” or the respondents are morons.
Well, neither in this case, and this is where relativism rears its head. You and I may regard the prospect of submitting ourselves to public health care with undisguised horror, but for the average South African – which is where the bulk of ANC supporters happen to reside – the services now rendered are orders of magnitude better than they were prior to 1994.
Getting back to Jacob Zuma and his popularity rating, all of his apparent failings and weaknesses (seen through our eyes I must add) aside, he does have virtually universal appeal as a man of the people, a man with the common touch.
The machinations of Juju Ma-lema, Cosatu and the SACP aside, this perhaps unjustified image, had significant influence over his election as ANC president at Polokwane in 2007. Branch delegates cast their votes, but they’re told who to vote for by their branch members. And those branch members are “average South Africans”.
The internecine war that has erupted in the Alliance over the “leadership question” appears to have the nation agog.
Possible alternatives to JZ are touted, the most popular of which appears to be Kgalema Motlanthe at present. Who knows where that will go before the elective conference at Mangaung later this year, but be assured, the fun has barely begun. Red herrings will be hurled in the path of the media, some of which will undoubtedly be gobbled up.
So what does all of this translate into?
Well, for starters, Jacob Zuma is a shoo-in for a second term, despite what you might read in the press. (Incidentally, Mr Marketing reckons you can believe about 15% of what you read in the press!)
Why do I say this? Well, JZ is the incumbent, and anybody who knows anything about presidential elections will tell you that the incumbent has significant advantage over contenders, because the incumbent has his hands firmly on the levers of power.
Just look at how JZ emasculated his erstwhile, most ardent supporter (Juju of course) when he turned on him and started plotting his downfall. For the same reason, Barack Obama will get a second term, despite his perceived failure to deliver on expectations. Okay, if JZ decides to not make himself available for re-election, then of course that changes everything, but what are the chances?
And just as JZ is assured of a second term, the ANC will continue to reap a clear majority in national elections for the foreseeable future. Oh sure, the DA will consolidate and possibly increase its control of the Western Cape, but there is a sting in the tail of its successful service delivery in the Province.
It attracts migrants from the adjacent Eastern Cape which is in a parlous state, and as the demographics shift, who knows, the ANC might well have the majority it believes it should have by right, in the next but one election. Other than that, the foreseeable political future of South Africa, is clearly black, green and gold.
Written by Norman McFarlane You are reading We’ll get the devil we know articles
