Tick tock … the Doomsday Clock
The Doomsday Clock was advanced by one minute this month. The time now stands at five minutes to midnight. A year ago, it was put back one minute, to six minutes to midnight. Conceptualised in 1947 during the Cold War by the board of directors of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists at the University of Chicago, the metaphorical clock depicts how close civilisation is to oblivion.
It wound down to two mintues to midnight in 1953 because America and Russia both tested nuclear devices within nine months of each other. It peaked in 1991 at 17 minutes to midnight with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of communism. It has declined steadily since then, with the exception of the blip last year.
Whereas it initially focused on the threat of global thermo-nuclear war, it has of late come to contemplate additional man-made threats to our continued existence like climate change, and advances in genetics and biology, not all of which are necessarily beneficial to mankind.
Take the recent idiotic decision by a group of genetic scientists to manipulate the gene sequence of the avian flu virus to make it even more contagious. Although avian flu has only "crossed over" from animals in a limited number of cases (600 recorded deaths), it kills 60% of humans that become infected.
Making it more contagious simply increases the likelihood that it will infect humans. What if that virus gets out of the civilian laboratory in Holland where it was created? If I was a terrorist, I'd be keen to get my hands on a weapon like that.
But why did the clock move forward after begin put back last year? Simply because the world did not deliver on the apparent promise which was evident in January 2011.
Fukushima happened, and all of the obfuscation by the pro-nuclear lobby aside, it was a catastrophic accident. It may not have killed as many people as Chernobyl did, but it is far from over, and the ultimate impact on both people and the environment not yet clearly understood.
Increased concern over future nuclear accidents has now raised the possibility that increased safety measures motivated by Fukushima may make nuclear energy too expensive in America. With development of alternatives lagging, what are the options, other than increased fossil fuel consumption?
North Korea continued with its belligerent stance over the development of its nuclear capability. Having conducted a nuclear test on May 25 2009, the most recent evidence based on satellite imagery, is that north Korea is forging ahead with the building of a new light water reactor and a uranium enrichment plant at its Yongbyon nuclear facility.
As recently as Friday, it appears that Kim Jong Un, the third generation despot who took over from his late father recently, is contemplating suspending the uranium enrichment programme in return for food aid from America. North Korea it seems, can maintain a standing army of one million men, but it cannot feed its population.
But this would not be the first time that north Korea has dangled such a tantalising carrot in front of America and the world, so time will tell what will actually materialise, but I won't be holding my breath.
Iran has been as much of a disappointment as North Korea. It is unequivocal in its pursuit of nuclear capability, and while North Korea is enough of a threat in South East Asia, the added complication of Israel's attitude (and proximity) to Iran's nuclear ambitions, make the Middle East arguably the most volatile place on earth. Israel whacked Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor way back in June 1981 and put paid to Saddam Hussein's nuclear ambitions.
The assessment of downside tactical risks can so easily fall victim to political dogma, and emotional imperatives: if the threat of a nuclear armed Iran is deemed inevitable, Israel may well be prepared to sacrifice substantial military assets (both people and equipment) to stop it in its tracks, if Israel is unable to bully America into launching an attack, which according to a number of security analysts, Israel is attempting to do. The fuse on the Middle East powder keg has just become alarmingly short.
And let's not forget the parlous performance of the Conference of the Parties in Durban last month. Under the dynamic leadership of our own very Maite Nkoana-Mashabane (minister of international relations and cooperation), the climate change mandarins managed to delay a binding decision on carbon emissions for long enough to ensure that we'll probably reach the tipping point by 2020.
Is it any wonder the Doomsday Clock has advanced one minute toward oblivion?
Written by Norman McFarlane You are reading Tick tock … the Doomsday Clock articles
